As we’ve covered in the last couple weeks, the current trend seems to be moving towards the buyer’s direction. Rising rates and other consequences from inflation are certainly a motivating factor. However, that does not mean there is no room for the average investor to make money. This is particularly true for CRE (Commercial Real Estate) investors. There’s always money to be made in the real estate market, that is, if you’re a seasoned and skilled buyer.
“You can’t add value to bonds — and unless you own a VC firm or you’re Warren Buffett or Elon Musk, you really can’t create value by owning stocks. Other than owning a company or a franchise, only real estate allows investors to roll up their sleeves, either physically or metaphorically, and create value in an investment.”
Not only that, but in the CRE marketplace specifically, investors have so many options. From REITs, REIGs, non-traded REIT sponsors, mini-tender offers, all the way to even direct CRE property management. The latter is what Chang illuded to in his quote above. Having a “do it yourself” attitude in real estate can allow to you avoid hiring FTE’s. Thus, you’re much more likely to have room for a positive return. What will every intelligent macroeconomist suggest to businesses when monetary policy is geared towards inflationary times, or a potential recession? Minimize business costs (Wan, CloserIQ). That applies directly to CRE investors too. If you can minimize your business cost, by acting as your own property manager for example, you are undoubtably more likely to succeed irrespective of turbulent financial times.
With an official from the Fed quoted as saying he sees the Fed raising rates through the end of 2023, investors should prepare for a tightening economy (Saphir & Dunsmuir, Reuters). Rising prices with relatively unchanged labor market conditions. If you invest in FX, that likely means the dollar will be disadvantaged. But in CRE, as in the whole real estate asset class, positive returns are always on the table. To reiterate, investors who are willing to cut costs will make out well in a recessionary economic period.
Many experts are confirming the number of commercial real estate (CRE) investors who are considering environmental, social, and governance (ESG) standards when looking at potential investment opportunities is significantly increasing. A staggering 60 percent of respondents to brokerage CBRE’s 2021 Global Investor Intentions Survey stated that they had already adopted ESG criteria as part of their investment strategies. In other words, 3 out of every 5 CRE investors have factored ESG into their investment portfolio’s strategy. That’s an extremely significant number.
What’s The Impact?
This will force real estate investment firms to start catering to ESG conscious investors if they want to remain competitive. According to the same 2021 CBRE report, some CRE firms have committed to net-zero carbon emissions: Heitman by 2030, Nuveen by 2040, and Brookfield Properties by 2050. Overall, that seems like a win-win in the end. Commercial real estate properties will be built to be more eco-friendly and investors will continue to profit. What’s not to like?
Industry executives, primarily, in the CRE property construction industry have been frustrated by increased scrutiny. This seems to be common in amongst senior executives, for the most part, and especially in an industry like construction. Anytime there’s increased regulation, that always leads to greater frustration. More tensions regarding profit margins, income statements, investor reports. Increased regulation almost always results in greater costs for corporations. What does that result in, in turn? Layoffs, a decrease in quality, a decrease in work/life balance, etc. Another way to look at it is when executives become worse off, employees under them are sure to suffer too. The same is true in the CRE market, both for companies on the demand and supply side.
What Will Happen to the “Other” 40%?
What about the other 40%; the investors who haven’t considered ESG as part of their investment strategy. Perhaps they don’t care about climate change, or they don’t believe factoring in ESG is a winning investment position. Either way, 40% of a group is still an extremely significant number. It’s not like those 40% can be forgotten or neglected. It’s basically the same situation as the other side of the coin: real estate investment firms will have to carry products that cater to ESG negligent investors too. This could include (amongst other things) REITs that hedge against heavily ESG driven CRE investment properties.
What’s The Ultimate Outcome?
Investors and investment firms that nail down the perfect balance of ESG conscious investments will prosper. Ultimately, with names in the CRE space like Heitman, Nuveen, and Brookfield Properties all committing to net-zero carbon emissions, you can expect “greener” CRE properties to be built in the future. That’s surely a win-win for everyone, political agenda, or affiliation notwithstanding. For investors, it means being more mindful of the ESG impact of a given CRE construction project. For example, if you’re in a REIG, or even more importantly as an individual investor, much like the 60% of current CRE investors who factored ESG into their CRE investment portfolio, you must do the same. With a REIG, you benefit from economies of scale where investors can collaboratively think of the best long-term approach. When you’re on your own, you must be certain you’re cognizant of all variables that may cause you to potentially get into the red on an investment. The research from this article shows that for CRE specifically, ESG will be included in prospective long-term plans.
It’s been covered extensively, but the COVID-19 pandemic has not been kind to CRE investment. Unfortunately, from looking at Real Capital Analytics CRE investment numbers for July 2021 and the general trajectory over a longer-term period, the CRE investing landscape in the US is not likely to change anytime soon (Clark, 2021). That considers far more than the decline in CRE investment we witnessed during the COVID-19 pandemic. It largely considers the reality that the world’s leading financial giants are contemplating a permanent hybrid work schedule. Real estate still continued to dominate as an investor-friendly asset class, in fact the largest in the world. However there’s no doubt CRE subsector investment dropped significantly and is continuing to, as a result of the pandemic.
How the US Fell Behind in CRE Investment
When the COVID-19 pandemic created a recessionary period March 2020 for the United States economy, the EU began flourishing. According to the same Real Capital Analytics report, “US investment volume for deals priced $10 million and greater slipped behind those in Europe by $19 billion” (Clark, 2021). Unfortunately for the US economy, this occurred in simultaneous months. As soon as the EU began to pick up momentum in deals, they grew quicker and larger. The United States economy – largely attributed to government political infighting – was placed on the back burner at that time. Then President Trump was in the heat of his re-election celebrations, until a global pandemic that’s been pegged as worse than the Spanish Flu, came around (Cox, USA Today).
This understandably sidetracked the Trump administration into both shock and damage control. While lawmakers in the United States were looking for who to blame for the pandemic’s “miss”, a Brookings University study concluded other countries were busy seizing on the opportunity to attract new business. Predominantly African countries, but definitely also many of those previously really hurting in the EU.
Jim Costello, Senior Vice President at Real Capital Analytics, described how investors are facing greater uncertainty around “underwriting future income trends for a property” because of the then relatively novel coronavirus.
“The social safety nets of European countries can look more expensive, but in a time of crisis, they can also help investors understand how economic losses will be distributed. A single large entity-level transaction boosted quarterly European deal activity ahead of that of the US in late 2017, but otherwise the U.S. has been a larger investment market.”
– Jim Costello, Real Capital Analytics
Where CRE Investment in the US Currently Stands and the Outlook Moving Forward
It’s worth noting the report states that in under normal circumstances, the US is the world’s “most liquid region” for commercial real estate activity. However, in the second quarter of the 2020, Europe moved past the US as a “hub for investment” (Clark, 2021). The trend is yet to discontinue. As CRE investing, raising capital through debt issuances, crowdfunding, and other methods of obtaining credit for CRE projects are rapidly declining, investor confidence is dropping in parallel. While data hasn’t favored bullish CRE investors since the onset of COVID-19, we’ve continued to cover hypothetical positive CRE resurgences.
Nearing the conclusion of Jim Costello’s findings, different calculations tell the same story. Commercial real estate holdings in the US are not the most advisable investment presently (Costello, 2021). The early figures for July show a double-digit decline in the number of commercial real estate deals in the US. However, deal volume for July is projected to be more than $10 billion. In 2009 – the last officially recorded recession – deal activity averaged around $6 billion per month for the whole year and was closer to $5 billion for July (Costello, 2021).
The findings Jim Costello referred to align with data collected by Statista, a well-known statistics portal for large market data.
Figure 1 – Commercial Real Estate Investment Volume in US, 2019-2020 ($B of USD)
Source: Statista Consumer Data, 2021
Figure 2 – Totaled Values of Commercial Real Estate Sold in US, 2019-2020 ($B of USA)
Source: Statista Consumer Data, 2021
“So while conditions in the US are poor, as of yet, investment activity is not as bad as the last downturn, the commercial real estate data suggests that there is less confidence in the US at the moment.”
– Jim Costello, Real Capital Analytics
Those final words from Jim Costello in this piece concisely summarize the point we’ve been driving home. While you may not agree with Jim’s rationale, the data does not lie. CRE investments in the US have been going downward since the start of COVID-19 and furthermore, the vast majority of reputable real estate financial analysts would not agree CRE is the best real estate vehicle to invest in at this time, at least relatively passively. It’s perhaps most important to conclude by reminding investors of the 2008 recession, ultimately collapsing from a massive residential housing market bubble. The lessons of 2008 not only taught investors, but also regulators to be vigilant of potential bubbles with systemic risks. However in this case, all the experts suggest the “crash” of US CRE investing during COVID-19 had to do with consumer confidence.
Once it began to fall, CRE investing opportunities essentially bottomed out because investors ran to relocate their assets. From placing investments much more frequently in REITS and other well diversified real estate vehicles, direct CRE investors became harder and harder to come by. When you add hybrid work schedules, to a push for more productive work-at-home time, and bottom line cost cuts from closing down “brick-and-mortar” offices, at best, the uncertainty of the delta variant in the COVID-19 virus is continuing to hold back CRE investing in the US. At worst – or most likely – CRE investing in the US is, at least temporarily, does not appear to favor any realistic bullish outlook.
According to the WHO (World Health Organization), long-working hours are directly attributed to the death’s of thousands, upon thousands, upon thousands in global cities (check out this past year, alone). We’re talking about nearly a million people in 2016 alone. The study – again conducted by the incredibly prestigious WHO and cited in BBC News – has some truly alarming statistics. This global survey contains data that is some of the first of its kind and begins gathering data to reach the hypothesis that was likely reached as early as 2016 (BBC News Service).
As this research was being conducted all the way dating back to 2016, it’s vital to note this takes into account labor market conditions mostly prior to the global, COVID-19 pandemic. Following the aftermath of the pandemic, we’ve seen companies adapt more of a hybrid office schedule for employees. We’ve even seen some companies abandon office schedules altogether (at least for the time being). Perhaps once these working conditions began, it was somewhat refreshing to those who commuted to the office everyday. However, as other studies have shown, while many really didn’t mind working from home, some individuals who were previously content with their weekly schedules became increasingly uncomfortable. Nonetheless, as labor market conditions are returning closer to pre-pandemic times, we can likely expect to see a bit more hybrid working schedules, but largely the same pre-pandemic conditions as in 2016 (BBC News Service).
Some Alarming Conclusions
Referring back to that 2016 study done by the WHO and initially reported on by BBC News, of the various alarming statistics, the very first one jumps out: 745,000 people died in 2016 as a result of stroke and heart disease due to long working hours. The article goes on to cite several egregious examples of worker abuse. Lora Jones, a 22 year-old described her initial role at a digital marketing firm as “cult-like”, regarding their adherence to a 72-hour minimum work week (Jones, BBC News).
While this may not surprise many, Goldman Sachs was thrown under the rug for overworking entry-level analysts. One report details entry-level analysts joining together to have a discussion with their managers at Goldman. They asked for an 80-hour work week cap, calling their current working conditions “abusive” and even “inhumane”. Nonetheless, in a subsequent BBC Report, Goldman CEO David Solomon had no problem with – now – a 95-hour work week. While applauding the courage of the entry-level personnel, Solomon noted “going an extra mile can go a long way”. Everyone reading this should understand the meaning of that pretty clearly.
BBC News continued with additional regurgitations of the same message; there’s a renewed interest in debating US working class conditions. Reports not cited by BBC show CEOs and executives taking great interest in the happiness of their everyday staff. With that, it’s important to note we’re not suggesting these BCC reports are fair portrayals of the average executive attitude, or average company culture. As we noted in the beginning, a key impact will be many companies adapting a hybrid work routine. This should appease both employees who don’t mind working from home and those who want to be in the office.
While hybrid work schedules aren’t necessarily great news for CRE investors, they are already a reality. This isn’t something companies are considering doing in the long-run; this is something several big companies have pledged to. The list is likely to only keep growing. These positive changes, combined with a renewed interest in publicly debating this topic, bodes well for the working class. For bullish CRE investors, perhaps not so much.
Many property types within the Commercial Real Estate (CRE) market are generally agreed to have had a poor performance the past few years, largely due to the COVID-19 pandemic restrictions. Particularly, office and retail property types. The real question investors are asking themselves is whether or not it has the potential for an emphatic return, or if a commercial real estate focus is not likely to be a great long-term investing strategy. The opportunities for successful CRE investments are still there. There are still plenty of marketplaces exclusively geared towards CRE investment, which have uniquely positioned themselves in the broader real estate investing market.
Before committing your resources to a given investment strategy, new investors should understand who the market players are for a CRE deal. Below is a thoroughly compiled list of the key players (roles) in the commercial real estate market, which then goes onto provide an additional link to a description of each role.
Key Players in CRE :
Buyer & Seller
Brokers: Buy-side and Sell-side
Legal Counsel: Buy-side, Sell-side, and Lender Counsel
Mortgage Broker
Lender/Loan Officer
Title Company
Capital Partners/Investors
Property Management
Insurance Provider
Appraiser & Surveyor
Environmental Consultant
Accountant: Buy-side and Sell-side
The following article shares a useful and detailed look at the key players in CRE. Refer to the link below. It provides key details about the key players in CRE’s marketplace.
As a commercial real estate investor, either as a buyer or as a seller, you work with multiple parties to move a deal from discovery through to closing. To manage a deal process efficiently, it is of utmost importance to understand all of the key players in a commercial real estate transaction.
The above players all comprise parts of the CRE deal. It is important for a sophisticated investor to be familiar with the various players as they can understand the dynamics of a deal and align with the sponsors who will work with most of the players mentioned.
Many property types within the Commercial Real Estate (CRE) market are generally agreed to have had a poor performance the past few years, largely due to the COVID-19 pandemic restrictions. Particularly, office and retail property types. The real question investors are asking themselves is whether or not it has the potential for an emphatic return, or if a commercial real estate focus is not likely to be a great long-term investing strategy. The opportunities for successful CRE investments are still there. There are still plenty of marketplaces exclusively geared towards CRE investment, which have uniquely positioned themselves in the broader real estate investing market.
Before committing your resources to a given investment strategy, new investors should understand who the market players are for a CRE deal. Below is a thoroughly compiled list of the key players (roles) in the commercial real estate market, which then goes onto provide an additional link to a description of each role.
Key Players in CRE :
Buyer & Seller
Brokers: Buy-side and Sell-side
Legal Counsel: Buy-side, Sell-side, and Lender Counsel
Mortgage Broker
Lender/Loan Officer
Title Company
Capital Partners/Investors
Property Management
Insurance Provider
Appraiser & Surveyor
Environmental Consultant
Accountant: Buy-side and Sell-side
The following article shares a useful and detailed look at the key players in CRE. Refer to the link below. It provides key details about the key players in CRE’s marketplace.
As a commercial real estate investor, either as a buyer or as a seller, you work with multiple parties to move a deal from discovery through to closing. To manage a deal process efficiently, it is of utmost importance to understand all of the key players in a commercial real estate transaction.
The above players all comprise parts of the CRE deal. It is important for a sophisticated investor to be familiar with the various players as they can understand the dynamics of a deal and align with the sponsors who will work with most of the players mentioned.
